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Thursday, 16 April 2020 21:14

Recording Of Unconfirmed 'Probable' Covid-19 Deaths.......... Spike Death Toll Featured

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Following new CDC guidlines: "As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease.

A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19. A probable case or death is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii)

This change is a further example of one of the many reasons why the label "confirmed cases" (used by some to designate total cases) is now considered incorrect (see definitions for more details). The US CDC (and Worldometer) has always used the label "Total Cases." Canada is another example where the "total number includes publicly reported confirmed and probable cases [source]

so that is why we have had so many death numbers jump so high reaching new record highs but not representing an accurate daily death count for example , New York City reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent"

From April 14 onward, New York City has provided - and will continue to provide -  the updated number of probable deaths in its daily reports.

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