The Sun Bay Paper Page 10 March 11, 2022 - March 17, 2022 Is This The New Norm? For decades mankind has been avoiding another “Big One” - another world war. Years ago, I watched a short “art” film focused on achieving wartime “solutions” without nuclear annihilation. On screen, two old men met in a garden. Off came their suit coats, and they commenced comical fistto-fist combat for world domination. Right there, next to the tomato plants, the destiny of the world was being decided. Winner takes all. I wasn’t impressed by the short movie’s plausibility. In a more recent video, warfare was conducted using computers. Programmers from feuding countries perched behind screens while their programs encountered each other. Quietly, battle by battle, a winner was decided, damage assessed, and the spoils of war printed out in triplicate. The implication was that each side was bound by agreement to allocate the computed damage and fatalities to the real world. That would make a great Twilight Zone episode. Forgive me for those examples. They’re simplistic and very silly. But the productions were intended as sincere expressions of antiwar sentiment. In the real world, alliances have formed which create high levels of military power. NATO is an example. And after decades of development, enough nuclear weapons exist to result in worldwide destruction if we had all-out warfare. If armed conflict is inevitable, how can we prepare ourselves to avoid mass annihilation? Given the reality of possible annihilation, and with the tools of war at the ready, it seems like the leading world powers have just been staring at each other. For decades, Russia’s Putin threatened specific actions, but no one believed him, or didn’t want to listen. But Putin was serious. He even acted in the past with repercussion. For months, Russia has been slowly building up military strength along the Ukrainian border. In February, Ukraine was attacked. Russia began aggressively destroying anything and anybody, including civilian targets – even maternity hospitals. Despite incredible Ukrainian push back, the destruction and killing has been brutal, even genocidal. Fortunately, NATO allies decided they couldn’t directly engage Russian advances over these battle fields because of the extreme risk of escalation and nuclear retaliation. That alternative is no longer available. Among all the confusion, military strategists and political leaders may have stumbled on the nature of future world wars. Wartime protocols and strategies may be evolving before our eyes. Russia’s tyrannical leader chose Ukraine as a killing field for genocide and eventual domination of its natural resources, agricultural production, or technical capabilities. Because of the brutality and the worldwide shock wave, the Russia invasion qualifies as a “world war.” Any dramatic escalation could result in the use of nuclear weapons. Therefore, direct conflict between nuclear powers must be avoided. That’s the rational behavior that NATO is trying to exercise. The new model for a “world war” recognizes that situations like this are inevitable and must be carefully managed. Earning the label “world war” now and in the future will depend more on the worldwide impact of the conflict, than on the total landmass or number of countries involved. And given the likely limited purpose of each event, i.e., the domination and control of a specific valuable geographical area, it’s likely future battlefields will tend to be limited in size. Once conventional warfare is inevitable, the primary goal must be to avoid direct conflict of between nuclear powers. A responsible nuclear power can be most effective by supplying conventional weapons support to their embattled allies, as NATO is trying to “figure out” for this Ukraine situation. Our process is sloppy so we must improve quickly. We’re watching and dealing with a situation we’ll see again. Goal number one is to avoid nuclear conflict. Right behind that is to make the tyrants of the world own the situations they create. As we’re seeing, non-military weapons are available that can be used to accomplish this. Right now, one of our biggest deficits is being prompt and decisive. We can’t always “wait and see.” What we’re experiencing is a glimpse of future international conflict. “Bad guys” will always be with us. It behooves us to pay attention and be prepared. We must be independent in our energy supplies and weaponry development. We can’t let other issues cloud out immediate existential threats. myslantonthings.com Steve Bakke, Fort Myer Small Businesses Concerned as Job Openings Hit Record Two more economic markers Wednesday raised concerns about the state of the U.S. economy, even as gas prices rise, inflation soars, and the invasion of Ukraine further threatens the supply chain. The National Federation of Independent Businesses released a report Wednesday showing that small businesses have become increasingly concerned about their future. "In February, the NFIB Optimism Index decreased by 1.4 points to 95.7, the second consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98," the group said. "Twenty-six percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, a four-point increase since December and the highest reading since the third quarter of 1981." Inflation remains chief among those concerns after the Consumer Price Index has shown for months the most significant price increases in about 40 years. “Inflation continues to be a problem on Main Street, leading more owners to raise selling prices again in February,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said. “Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages also remain problems, leading to lower earnings and sales for many.” The report found that “the net percent of owners raising average selling prices increased seven points to a net 68% ... a 48year record high reading.” Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data Wednesday showing that there were 11.3 million open jobs for the month of January, another new record high. That figure is more than the number of unemployed Americans, showing that many businesses are having trouble finding and keeping workers. “Job openings decreased in several industries, with the largest decreases in accommodation and food services (-288,000); transportation, warehousing, and utilities (- 132,000); and federal government (-60,000),” BLS said. “Job openings increased in other services (+136,000) and in durable goods manufacturing (+85,000).” NFIB’s report found this has become a major issue for small businesses. “Forty-eight percent of owners reported job openings that could not be filled, an increase of one point from January,” the report said. “Ninety-three percent of owners hiring or trying to hire reported few or no qualified applicants for their open positions.” Many small business owners also reported having trouble keeping certain items stocked because of the supply chain issues. “Thirty-seven percent of owners report that supply chain disruptions have had a significant impact on their business,” the report said. “Another 33% report a moderate impact and 21% report a mild impact. Only 8% of owners report no impact from the recent supply chain disruptions.” A minority of small business owners expect better business conditions in the next six months. “Price raising activity over the past 12 months has continued to escalate, reaching levels not seen since the early 1980s when prices were rising at double-digit rates,” the report said. Casey Harper-The Center Square Dr. Seuss expressed his puzzlement about war – in 1942.
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